Investment summary

EpiCept’s investment case is based on the the FDA SPA approval and the licensing of AmiKet (recently designated fast-track by the FDA), the EU sales growth of lead product Ceplene and the relicensing of Azixa. AmiKet completed Phase II trials for peripheral neuropathy with positive results, Ceplene is being launched in Europe by Meda for acute myeloid leukaemia, Azixa had encouraging interim Phase II data for glioblastoma multiforme and Crolibulin is in Phase I/II trials for anaplastic thyroid cancer. EpiCept has a current market cap of c $16m, a senior secured loan of $8.3m and cash of $6.4m as at 31 December 2011 resulting in an EV of c $20m. In comparison, we calculate a risk-adjusted NPV of $79m based on prudent assumptions of the four products' probability of success in each indication.

Last updated on 23/04/2012

Industry outlook

There are many products in clinical development for AML induction therapy; the main direct rivals for maintenance of remission and prevention of relapse include clofarabine and IL-2 monotherapy, although the IL-2 monotherapy has not been shown to be effective to date.

Last updated on 23/04/2012