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Date Report details Download
Jan 27
2010
Mining sector report: Gold - Valuation benchmarks are obsolete
We have re-run our analysis to determine differentiated values for 'measured', 'indicated' and 'inferred' resource ounces to include the Canadian, Australian and South African markets as well as the London one. In doing so, we have been able to determine that the average value of a 'measured' resource ounce globally is US$340/oz, while that of an 'indicated' ounce is US$159/oz and that of an 'inferred' ounce is US$34/oz (excluding Witwatersrand ounces). An average ounce is worth US$158.56/oz, which contrasts sharply with both its cost of discovery (US$8.81/oz, as determined by leading international accountancy firm BDO - see inside) and an historic benchmark valuation of US$35/oz.
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Jan 18
2010
Industrials sector report - Nonwovens
The past two years have undoubtedly been difficult for nonwoven producers. However, with the best time to invest in cyclical stocks the bottom of a demand cycle and when confidence is rising, we suggest that now may be a good time to examine the sector. We believe that while demand growth is not expected to be strong in 2010/11, a combination of slowly improving European demand and firm Asian demand points to increased investor interest in this market.
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Nov 06
2009
Biotechnology sector report: Obesity - Where are the deals?
Pivotal data have been now reported for all three of biotech's most advanced oral anti-obesity projects, something we had expected to serve as the trigger for licensing activity with big pharma. A licensing deal is a key event for each of the companies involved, but despite data now being out no such alliance has yet materialised. In this report we investigate the prospects for licensing and outline some alternative strategies being pursued while deal negotiation continues.
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Oct 12
2009
Mining sector report: Gold - still aping the 1970s
In our April 2009 report, Gold - a return to the 1970s, we posited a theory that if gold repeats the same performance in the current cycle as it did during the 1970s re-inflation, it would hit US$1,567/oz ‘in the near term’. In this follow-up report we argue that, with the world still facing deflationary forces in the near term, gold’s peak is likely to be delayed to 2013, but that its peak will be correspondingly higher at US$1,879/oz.
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Jun 22
2009
Property sector report: Double-digit dividend yields
The real estate sector has seen a significant rally since the dark days of Q408. The stock market is starting to discount the downturn as a standard property cycle, but the significant structural issue of deleveraging remains to be addressed.
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Jun 01
2009
Technology sector report: Sailing turbulent seas
Semiconductors are used in a wide variety of electronic applications from washing machines to sophisticated communication satellites. While wave upon wave of negative news has affected the entire sector, we draw investors’ attention to a number of technology adoption cycles that should see double-digit growth rates in 2009 and that can drive long-term returns. We highlight ARM Holdings, CSR and IQE as companies that are strongly poised to capitalise on these cycles and increase shareholder value.
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Apr 20
2009
Mining sector report: Gold - a return to the 1970s
While these are extraordinary times for the world economy, they are not without precedent, with structural trade deficits, burgeoning budget deficits and bank failures all equally prominent in the 1970s. During the 1970s, gold rose from US$35/oz to its only recently surpassed record of US$850/oz in 1980 – a 24-fold uplift in value. While we do not expect quite such dramatic appreciation in the current era, a repeat of the same cycle would see gold rise to a price of US$1,567/oz in the near term.
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Mar 02
2009
Alternative Energy - How to play a complex sector
Within the UK’s incentive regime, it is only wind power that has both the financial returns and scalability to create value for investors in operational assets. For other types of energy, investing in cost-reducing new technologies is the higher-risk, higher-reward strategy. We examine the technologies, costs and potential returns of investing in the sector and recommend sweet-spots in the value chains.
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Jan 30
2009
Technology sector - Here come the bids?
In this report we look across the valuation wasteland of the UK mid- and small-cap technology sector to try and identify those companies where multiples have disconnected from fundamentals.
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Nov 21
2008
Automotive distributors - Defensive qualities
The motor distribution segment of the Retail Sector has seen an average 74% share price fall from its 2008 highs. This reflects natural fears related to consumer spending, epitomised by the fall off in new car registrations over the past three months.
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Peter Knowles
Director, Fyshe Horton Finney